Our polling average gives Mamdani a commanding lead of 15.5%, but with large variation, and recent polling showing closer results we observed closer. Early voter turnout may not be where it needs to be at for Mamdani to have such a comfortable lead. To also point out, we have not had a lot of data for a true 3-way race. We expect Mamdani to win with a plurality of the vote- 46% to Cuomo's 42%, and Sliwa at 13% with all candidates at a margin of error of 4%. Mamdani is expected to win Kings and Queens County, with Staten Island going to Sliwa or Cuomo. Cuomo is expected to win The Bronx and with Manhattan to be competitive, Mamdani will likely win here.